Evaluation of the Variability of Parameters of the Financial Status of the Republic of Belarus in 2000-2020
Abstract
Based on the analysis of national and foreign scientific literature, the paper determines the main parameters of financial stability at the macro level, taking into account the characteristics of the economy of the Republic of Belarus. These parameters include the level of inflation, exchange rates, the level of dollarization of the economy, interest rate, the balance of external trade, the state of the economic entities' finances, as well as financial soundness indicators developed by the International Monetary Fund. The quantitative assessment of the inter-linkages between these parameters was carried out: a correlation matrix and regression models are constructed. The study used official statistical information published by the National Bank and the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis for 2000-2019.
About the Author
V. V. Skrund
Belarusian State University
Belarus
Belarus
Postgraduate Student
4 Nezavisimosti Ave., 220030 Minsk
References
1. Bisogno M. Cuadrado-Ballesteros B., García-Sánchez I. M. Financial Sustainability in Local Governments: Definition, Measurement and Determinants. Financial Sustainability in Public Administration. Ed. M.P. Rodríguez Bolívar. Cham, 2017: Palgrave Macmillan. PP. 57–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57962-7_3.
2. Gümüş E. Examination of Financial Sustainability in Turkey (2002–2018). Journal of Finance and Bank Management. 2019. Vol. 7. No. 2. PP. 37-46. DOI: 10.15640/jfbm.v7n2a3.
3. Rodríguez Bolívar M.P. Navarro Galera A., Alcaide Muñoz L., López Subirés M. D. Risk Factors and Drivers of Financial Sustainability in Local Government: An Empirical Study. Local Government Studies. 2016. Vol. 42. No. 1. PP. 29–51. DOI: 10.1080/03003930.2015.1061506.
4. Abakumova J. G., Bokova S. J. Modeling and short-term forecasting of inflation. Vesnik Grodzenskaga dzyarzhaunaga universiteta imya Yanki Kupaly. Seruya 5: Ekanomika. Sacyjalogiya. Biyalogiya. [Bulletin of the Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno. Series 5: Economics. Sociology. Biology.] 2017. T. 7. №2. pp. 104 – 114.
5. Avraamenka A. I. Inflation as an indicator of the sustainability of socio-economic development and economic security of the country. Problems of Combating Crime and Training Personnel for Law Enforcement Agencies: thesis report of the international scientific and practical conference, Minsk, 21 Feb. 2019 y. Academiya MVD. Minsk: Academiya MVD [MIA Academy. – Minsk: MIA Academy], 2019. pp. 101-102.
6. Bashlakova O. S., Marchenko L. N. Econometric estimation of money supply and inflation in the Republic of Belarus. Izvestija Gomelskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta imeni F. Skoriny. [Bulletin of F. Skorina Gomel State University]. 2016. № 6 (99). pp. 65-68.
7. Belarus in Figures, 2020: stat. directory. National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus; [editorial board I. V. Medvedeva (chairman) and another]. Minsk, 2020. 72 p.
8. Borovik L. S., Vardevanyan G. L. The relationship between productivity and wages: comparative dynamics and optimization problems. Belorusskij ekonomicheskij zhurnal [Belarusian Economic Journal]. 2008. № 1. pp. 70-79.
9. Ishchanova R. K. The stability of the state budget as the strength of the financial basis of the state. Vestnik Kyrgyzsko- Rosijsskogo Slavjanskogo universitete [Bulletin of the Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University]. 2018. T. 18. № 11. pp. 44-48.
10. Karapetyan O. M. Credit rating as a tool for influencing the indicators of state financial stability. Nayka i ekonomika [Science and economics]. 2013. T. 1. №4(32). pp. 75-79.
11. Karatayev F. S. Menu costs, monetary policy and long-term economic growthp. Nauchnyje issledovanija ‘konomicheskogo fakulteta. Elektronnyj zhurnal ekonomicheskogo fakulteta MGU imeni M.V. Lomonosova [Scientific research of the Faculty of Economics. Electronic journal of the Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University]. 2012. T. 4. №2. pp. 37-48.
12. Kartun A., Haritonchik A. The effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation in the Republic of Belarus and assessment of its changes. Bankauski vesnik [Banking Bulletin]. 2016. №9 (638). pp. 3-11.
13. Leonovich T. I. Improving the methodology for analyzing the financial stability of banks of the Republic of Belarus in the post-crisis economy. Rossijskaja ekonomika: vzglyad v budushcheje [Russian economy: a look into the future]: materials of the IV Int. scientific-practical conf., Tanbov, 21 Feb. 2018 y. Tambov: Tambov. state University named after. G.R. Derzhavin, 2018. pp. 326-337.
14. Lolejt A. Inflationary expectations of economic agents in Russia. Ekonomicheskaja politika [Economic policy]. 2011. - №6. pp. 34-59.
15. Luban V. V. The role of non-monetary factors in the management of inflationary processes in the Republic of Belarus. Ekonomika i upralenije [Economics and Management]. 2015. №3(43). pp. 20-23.
16. Novashina T. S. Institutional framework for ensuring the sustainability of the national financial systems of the EurAsEC member states in the context of financial globalization. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Serija 27: Globalistika i Geopolitika [Moscow University Bulletin. Episode 27: Global Studies and Geopolitics]. 2014. №3-4. pp. 95-104.
17. Oreshko A. EDB draws attention to increased consumer activity in Belarus. Available at: https://news.tut.by/economics/593066.html.(accessed: 09.04.2020).
18. Official site of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://www.nbrb.by.(accessed: 09.04.2020).
19. Official site of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://www.belstat.gov. by.(accessed: 09.04.2020).
20. Povetkina N.A. Mejtardzhan D.A. «Independent fiscal institution» in the mechanism of ensuring the financial stability of the state. Zhurnal zarubezhnogo zakonodadelstva i sravnitelnogo pravovedenija. 2018. №3(70). pp. 113-117.
21. Indicators of financial stability. Compilation guide. Int. curr. fund. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fsi/guide/2006/pdf/rus/guide.pdf.(accessed: 09.04.2020).
22. Polonik S.S., Polonik I.S., Smolyarova M.A., Polonik V.V. Methodology for developing the financial program of the Republic of Belarus for the medium term. Novaja ekonomika[New Economy]. 2017. № 1(69).pp. 15-26.
23. Real wages are 6 times higher than labor productivity. What is the problem and what does the state employees have to do with it. Available at: https://finance.tut.by/news666863.html. (accessed: 09.04.2020).
24. Hamidova S.H. Refinancing rate is the main instrument of monetary regulation. Vestnik TGUPB [Bulletin of TSUPB]. 2012. №2. pp. 146-155.
25. Haritonchik, A., Kartun A. Nonlinearity of the exchange rate pass-through effect on inflation in the Republic of Belarus. Bankauski vesnik [Banking Bulletin]. 2017. № 3(644). pp. 15-24.
26. Haritonchik A. New estimates of the effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation in the Republic of Belarus. Bankauski vesnik [Banking Bulletin]. 2019. № 3. pp. 26-32.
Review
For citations:
Skrund V.V. Evaluation of the Variability of Parameters of the Financial Status of the Republic of Belarus in 2000-2020. Digital Transformation. 2021;(2):32-43. (In Russ.)
Views: 3599
Email this article 